Climate change impacts and adaptation: Crossregional research programme. Topic C: Water Steven Wade and Jean-Philippe Vidal, HR Wallingford Claire Barnett (Met Office), Teresa Fenn (RPA)
[email protected] http://www.futuredrought.org.uk/ http://www.futuredrought.org.uk/
Objectives: Topic C Water 1. To assess the impact of climate change on the management of water resource zones, and existing water infrastructure 2. In particular, to examine the effect of realistic scenarios of single extreme events, and combinations of extreme events, on water resources. 3. To consider the adequacy of current policy and guidance for managing water resources in the context of climate change. 4. To recommend how decision-making and management could be improved. Water resources = water demand, supply, environment, quality etc.. Page 2
NOT flood risk
Project framework – drivers and pressures on water resources Climate variability & Climate Change (UKCIP02 & HadRM3 Extremes)
Social & economic change (Foresight scenarios) •Population growth •Economic growth •Land use change •Social change •(Lifestyle & attitudes) Policy responses •Regulation •Investment •CAMS •WFD
Stakeholder responses •Business strategy •Risk “appetite” •Guidelines
Page 3
Adapted from Downing et al., 2003
Temperature Winter precipitation Summer precipitation PET Variability
Environment
Responses
SUPPLY
DEMAND
Supply-demand balance •Risk •Uncertainty •(Headroom) •Least cost
Developing ‘water futures’ Medium-high emissions scenario. (2050s) Summer precipitation percentage change with respect to the 1961 - 90 climate)
Case Study Socioeconomic scenario
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
World Markets
Low Emissions
High Emissions
Percentage change (%) (%)
Medium High Emissions
National Enterprise Global Sustainability
Low Emissions
High Emissions
Autonomy
30 to 35 25 to 30 20 to 25 15 to 20 10 to 15 0 to 10 -10 to 0 -20 to -10 -30 to -20 -40 to -30 -50 to -40 -60 to -50
National Enterprise
Local Stewardship
World Markets
Page 4
Crown Copyright 2002. The UKCIP02 Climate Scenario data have been made available by the Department for Environm ent, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). DEFRA accepts no responsibility for any inaccuracies or omiss ions in the data nor for any los s or damage directly or indirectly caused to any pers on or body by reas on of, or aris ing out of any us e of, this data.
Interdependence
Consumerism Conventional Development
Community Global Sustainability 2020s 2050s 2080s
Changes in precipitation patterns based on HadRM3 Defra Cross-Regional Climate South East of England change programme Possible changes in precipitation 3 summer months (JAS) 200
Total rainfall July-Aug-Sept (mm)
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960
1970
1980
Control run 1961-1990 Page 5
1990
2000
2010
Low Emissions
2020
2030
2040
Medium High Emissions
2050
2060
2070
2080
High Emissions
2090
2100
Changes in precipitation patterns based on HadRM3 South East of England Possible changes in precipitation 3 winter months (OND) 450
Total rainfall Oct-Nov-Dec (mm)
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1960
1970
Control run 1961-1990 Page 6
1980
1990
2000
2010
Low Emissions
2020
2030
2040
Medium High Emissions
2050
2060
2070
2080
High Emissions
2090
2100
Defra Cross-Regional Climate change programme
Changing patterns of seasonal rainfall 2080s Medium High Emissions scenario compared to 1961-1990
Change in frequency of extreme dry conditions
Page 7
East Scotland
South East England
1 in 20yr Dry Winter
23 yrs
18 yrs
1 in 10yr Dry Winter 1 in 20yr Dry Summer
12 yrs 9 yrs
10 yrs 7 yrs
1 in 10yr Dry Summer
5 yrs
4 yrs
Comments (--) No significant change
(x2) More dry summers
2020s 2050s ES
2080s
25 Defra Cross-Regional Climate change programme 20 25 15
10 5
5
5 0
2020s 2050s NEE
2080s
15
10
10
10
5
5 2080s
0
25
25
20
20
15
15
2020s 2050s CEE
5
5 1970s
2020s 2050s ES 0
2080s 2080s
0
1970s
2020s 2050s 25 NWE
2020s 2050s SS
2080s
2080s
15
25
10
20
5
1970s 15 2020s 2050s NEE
2080s
10
1970s
0
1970s
2020s 2050s NWE
2080s
25 20
5
15
0
5 0
2080s
20
10
2020s 2050s 5 SWE 0
10
1970s
15
2020s 2050s NI
20
25
15
1970s
25
15
2080s
10
1970s
0
20
1970s
Page 8
2020s 2050s NS
20
0
10
1970s
20
15
5
25
15
20
10
1970s
20
Number of 6 months extreme droughts 25
10
0
25
25
HadCM3 HadRM3-a HadRM3--b HadRM3--c
20
15
0
0
2020s 2050s 2080s HadRM3 (A2) - Increase in1970s the frequency of ‘short’ rainfall SS droughts
1970s
No. droughts in 30 yrs
0
10
1970s 2020s 2050s SWE
2020s 2050s 5 SEE 0 2080s
1970s
Time period
2080s 2020s 2050s SEE
2080s
HadRM3 (A2) - Increase in the frequency of ‘long’ rainfall droughts Defra Cross-Regional Climate change programme
Number of 24 months extreme droughts 5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
5 HadCM3 HadRM3-a HadRM3--b HadRM3--c
4 3
0
2020s 2050s NS
2080s
0
1970s
2020s 2050s ES
2080s
0
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
Page 9
1970s
1970s
2020s 2050s NI
2080s
0
1970s
2020s 2050s NEE
2080s
0
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
1970s
2020s 2050s CEE
2080s
0
1970s
2020s 2050s SWE
2080s
0
1970s
2020s 2050s SS
2080s
1970s
2020s 2050s NWE
2080s
1970s
2020s 2050s SEE
2080s
Water resources planning 260.00
Supply/Demand Ml/d
250.00
Planned schemes
Resources (no climate change)
Demand (climate and socio-economic change)
240.00 230.00 220.00
A
Increasing Deficit
D
19
25
B
210.00
Resources (with climate change)
200.00 190.00 1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
21
23
Year
Page 10
Demand
Demand plus Headroom
Supply (Do Nothing)
Water futures for the SE: 2020s 80.0 Water Supply Agriculture Environment
Requirements Ml/d
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Page 11
WMLE
WMHE
NEMHE GSLE Scenario
GSHE
Planned
Water futures for the South East 2020s Small increase in the demand (2%) for water due to climate change Large increases in demand for water in ‘growth areas’ due to increasing population/households Potential supply-demand deficits of 4 to 15% in the SE. Potential for additional investment ca. £50M per water resources zone in development ‘hot-spots.’
2050s Increase in demand (4%) due to climate change Increases in demand depending on socioeconomic scenario Potential supplydemand deficits of 7 to 32 % in SE
Water Futures: 2080s resource requirements =f(climate change, socio-economic change)
160.0
350.0
140.0
300.0
120.0 100.0 Water Supply Agriculture Environment
60.0 40.0
250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0
20.0
Page 12
Requirements Ml/d
Requirements Ml/d
Water Futures: 2050s resource requirements =f(climate change, socio-economic change)
80.0
2080s Further increases in demand due to climate change Overall increases depending on socio-economic scenario Potential supplydemand deficits of 16 to 46% in SE
0.0 WMLE
WMHE
NEMHE Scenario
GSLE
GSHE
0.0 WMLE
WMHE
NEMHE Scenario
GSLE
GSHE
Management measures
Page 13
Supply
Demand
Environmental
National
National transfers (North to South) Research Monitoring of trends in rainfall, river flow and recharge
Educational projects Research into water saving technology Improved Building Regulations
Environmental Directives Implementation of the WFD New legislation on drought management
Regional
New reservoirs Reservoir raising Canal transfers Drought forecasting Conjunctive use Emergency planning
Tariffs for measured charges Restrictions to discretionary use
Negotiated environmental agreements Habitat corridors Regional Spatial Strategies
Local
Bankside storage Desalination Wastewater re-use Artificial recharge of aquifers Flexible licensing Insurance against crop failure
Waste minimisation Dual flush toilets Metering Leakage control Rainwater use Greywater use White goods subsidies Change crop types
Abstraction controls & trading Emission controls Recreation and restoration of wetlands areas Rehabilitation projects
Multi-Criteria Analysis of Options Figure 3.3: Scatter Plot of Score versus Cost for the East of Scotland Case Study 100% 90% 80%
WW reuse (indirect pws)
WW reuse (direct pws)
Abstraction trading
WW reuse (direct non-pws)
70%
WW reuse (indirect non-pws)
Rainwater use
Tariffs
White goods subsidies
Weighted Score
Educational projects
Retrofit of toilets
60%
Metering (domestic)
Pipeline transfer
Canal transfer
50%
Improved leakage control
40% Greywater use
30% Winter storage (farm consortium) Winter storage (single farm)
20%
Waste minimisation
Change crops
Change irrigation
10% 0% 1
10
100 3
Cost (p/m )
Page 14
1000
Water Resources Planning Adequacy Recommendations • Better linkages between regional spatial planning and water company plans • More thorough reassessments of source yields • A better understanding of environmental water requirements under future scenarios • Climate proofing of options Page 15
Drought Planning Adequacy (OK but variable)
Recommendations •Streamlining the drought risk management and abstraction licensing process •More wide ranging demand restrictions •Drought forecasting and warning •Drought communication - a clearer system •‘Drought-proofing’ water resources systems Page 16
Agriculture
Adequacy Recommendations •‘Water harvesting’ from horticultural greenhouses/poly-tunnels •Changing charging regimes to encourage winter abstraction and storage •Investment in small farm or shared reservoir systems Page 17
Conclusions: Climate change impacts •Three of the worst five rainfall droughts in the UK since 1914 have occurred since 1990 •‘Short’ droughts will increase significantly by the 2050s and be common-place by the 2080s •Pressures on public water supply, agriculture and the environment will increase •Public water supply-demand deficits of 4 to 15 % developed by the 2020s and deficits of 16 to 46 % by the 2080s for the baseline or ‘do nothing’ case Page 18
Conclusions: Adaptation •Improvements to drought risk management •Variable water charges •Changes to agricultural irrigation practices inc. small on-farm reservoirs • Mandatory changes to land use planning and building regulations • As well as the ‘twin-track’ water resources planning approach •Selecting ‘climate proof’ adaptation measures to meet environmental, social and economic objectives (MCA) Page 19
Links & dissemination Linked to Topic E ‘Costs’ Attended Defra APF workshop Treasury review Kent Water Summit CIWEM climate change meetings (2) EA Severe Droughts project UKWIR/EA research EA Water Ranger EC Climate change and Water side event COP12 Page 20
Reports available on-line: http://www.futuredrought.org. uk/Defra_Public.htm
And finally, examples of adaptation (UKWIR/EA research)
Page 21
