International Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to

25 mai 2010 - (excluding biofuels). Natural gas. Coal. Nuclear. History. Projections. 35%. 27%. 23%. 10%. 5% ... percent per year. Source: EIA, International ...
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International Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to 2035

Center for Strategic and International Studies May 25, 2010 Washington, DC Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator

Non-OECD countries account for 86% of the increase in global energy use energy consumption quadrillion Btu 800

739 687

Non-OECD OECD

639 590

600

543 62%

495 400 50% 200

38%

50% 0 2007

2015

2020

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

2

Renewables are the fastest growing energy source (but from a relatively small base) world primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Projections

History

250

Liquids (including biofuels)

200

30% 28%

35% 22%

Coal

150 27%

100

Natural gas Renewables (excluding biofuels)

23%

Share of world total 14%

10%

50

6%

Nuclear

5%

0 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

3

Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend average annual change (2007-2035) percent per year 6

GDP Population Energy use per GDP

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 United States

OECD Europe

Japan

South Korea

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

China

India

Brazil

Middle East

Africa

Russia

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

4

The IEO reflects uncertainty in oil prices through a wide set of price cases light, sweet crude oil price 2008 dollars per barrel History

225

Projections

$210

200 High Oil Price case

175 150

Reference case

$133

125 100 75

$51

50 Low Oil Price case 25 0 1990

1995

2000

2005

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

5

OPEC producers maintain an approximate 40% share of total liquids production in the Reference case liquids production million barrel per day History

120

Projections 111

100

Total

85 80 60

48

52

Non-OPEC conventional

45

40 OPEC conventional

34 20

Unconventional

3 0 1990

1995

2000

2005

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2010

2015

2020

13

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

6

Growth in OPEC production of conventional liquids comes primarily from Saudi Arabia and Iraq conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2007

2020

2035

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Saudi Arabia

Iran

Iraq

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

Other Middle East OPEC

Africa

South America

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

7

Brazil, Russia, Kazakhstan, and U.S. lead increases in nonOPEC conventional supplies conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2007

2020

2035

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Russia

United States

Brazil

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

Kazakhstan

OECD Europe

Mexico

Canada

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

8

Canadian oil sands and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in total unconventional liquids unconventional liquids production million barrels per day 6 5 2007

2020

2035

4 3 2 1 0 Oil sands/ bitumen

Biofuels

Extra-heavy oil

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

Coal-toliquids

Gas-to-liquids

Shale oil

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

9

The high oil price case assumes much lower production from key oil exporters liquids production in 2035 million barrels per day

45

Reference case

High Oil Price case

OPEC

42

Non-OPEC

39

40 35 30 25

22

20 15

15

15

13

11

9

10

6

5

4

4 3

Iraq

Iran

7

6

5

6

0 Saudi Arabia

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

Other OPEC

Russia

Brazil

China

Other NonOPEC

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

10

Non-OECD Asia accounts for 35% of increased natural gas use natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet 160 136

140 120

145

150

156 Non-OECD Asia

125 Middle East 108

100

Other OECD

80

Central/South America

60 Africa

40 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

20

US

0 2007

2015

2020

2025

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

11

The Middle East accounts for almost one-third the increase in global gas production Percent Change 2007-2035 Other OECD

-9%

Australia/New Zealand

164%

United States

22%

Central and South America

101%

Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

21%

Africa

104%

Non-OECD Asia

75% 125%

Middle East -4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

natural gas production trillion cubic feet Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

12

Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane drive supply growth in China, Canada, and the U.S natural gas production trillion cubic feet 25

20 Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane

15

10

5 All other gas

0 2007 2035 China

2007 2035 Canada

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2007 2035 United States

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

13

Virtually all growth in global coal use occurs in non-OECD Asian nations, especially China and India world coal consumption quadrillion Btu History

160

Projections

140 120 Non-OECD Asia 100 80 60 Rest of the world

40 20

North America

0 1990

1995

2000

2005

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

14

Renewables are fastest growing, but coal still fuels the largest share of the world’s electricity in 2035 world electricity generation trillion kilowatt hours 40 Liquids Hydroelectricity

Nuclear Natural gas

Other renewables Coal

30 43%

20 19%

42%

15%

10

21% 16% 2% 14% 5%

0 2007

7% 13% 2% 2015

2020

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

15

Non-OECD transportation fuel use surpasses almost flat OECD fuel use by 2025 transportation sector energy consumption quadrillion Btu 100 History

Projections Non-OECD

80

60 OECD 40

20

0 2005

2010

2015

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

16

Freight energy use increases faster than passenger energy use transportation energy consumption quadrillion Btu OECD

80

Non-OECD

70 60 50 Freight 40 30 20 Passenger 10 0 2007

2020

2035

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2007

2020

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

17

Assuming no policy changes, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions grow 43% from 2007 to 2035 energy CO2 emissions billion metric tons 45

42 39

Non-OECD OECD

40

36 34

35

32

30

67%

30 25

53%

20 15 10 47%

43%

5 0 2007

2015

2020

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

18

Key trends from 2007 to 2035 • In the IEO2010 Reference case, global marketed energy consumption grows by 49 percent – Most of this growth occurs in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East

• With no policy changes that would limit their use, fossil fuels provide nearly 80 percent of world energy consumption in 2035 – Petroleum liquids remain the world’s single largest energy source even as their share of total energy use declines – Renewable energy gains a growing share of total energy use, as its absolute growth in use from 2007 to 2035, outstrips that of petroleum liquids despite starting from a much lower level

• Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 30 billion metric tons in 2007 to 42 billion metric tons in 2035 under current laws and policies • Meeting the projected increase in world liquids demand will require increases in conventional and unconventional supplies of 25.8 million barrels per day – Oil prices reach $133 per day in 2035 (real 2008 dollars per barrel) Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

19

Key Trends from 2007 to 2035 (continued) • Natural gas consumption increases 44% – Developing Asia accounts for 35% of the increase in world consumption – The Middle East accounts for 32% of the increase in production

• Coal use grows 56% – China and India alone account for 85% of the increase

• Nuclear power generation increases 74% • Total renewable energy use, including liquid biofuels, grows 111%

Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

20

For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review

www.eia.gov

www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html www.eia.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html www.eia.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html

National Energy Information Center (202) 586-8800 Live expert from 9:00 AM – 5:00 p.m. EST Monday – Friday (excluding Federal holidays) email: [email protected] Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010

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