Preprint - Conference "Wind Power for the 21st century" Kassel, Germany, 25-27 September 2000
A LONG TERM WIND POWER PROSPECT FROM HYDROPOWER RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT : SCENARIOS AND LESSONS Bernard CHABOT ADEME 500 route des lucioles, 06560 Sophia Antipolis – France ABSTRACT: This paper presents two scenarios for wind power development in the 21st century which are based on comparisons with the past and the future potential development of hydropower. A comparative analysis of differences and synergies between wind power and hydropower is made and an « acceleration factor » is proposed for the development of wind power during the twenty first century compared to the one of hydropower in the 20th century. The scenario S1 is defined by an acceleration factor of two and the hypothesis that wind power will deliver as much energy per year than hydropower in 2100. The scenario S2 is defined from a higher acceleration factor and from the hypothesis that in the 21st century wind power will deliver as much cumulated energy than hydropower. Both scenarios are characterised by annual net increases of operating power defined by a Weibull distribution. Results for annual energy delivery, world operating power, total annual market and yearly retrofit and replacement markets are presented. In the 21st century, the total energy delivered from wind vary from 50 to 93 Gtoe and if combined with hydro production, the total amount of avoided GHG emissions vary from 137 to 177 GtC. KEYWORDS: Energy policies - 1 ; Markets - 2 ; Strategies - 3 1. INTRODUCTION Table I: comparative analysis of wind and hydro power + : more favourable; - : less favourable
This paper presents two scenarios for wind power development in the twenty first century which are based on comparisons with the past and the future potential development of hydropower. The method to establish those two scenarios is based on three steps. The first one is an analysis of differences and synergies between wind power and hydropower. From this analysis, an « acceleration factor » is proposed in favour of the development of wind power during the 21st century compared to the development of hydropower in the 20th one. The second step is to define this acceleration factor for each scenario from simple assumptions on future energy delivery from wind power compared to hydropower during the twenty first century. And the last step consists in defining the annual net increase of operating wind power in the next century from a Weibull distribution versus time instead of a bell curve as in many conventional prospective scenarios. For each scenario, the results are given in annual and cumulated energy delivery, installed Gigawatts, annual markets and avoided fossil fuels and avoided greenhouse gases emissions in the world power sector.
Criterion Energy storage + grid mngt Multi purpose projects TT & JV from IC to DC Availability of sites in IC Availability of sites in DC Mass production Project duration Geological & political risk Private sector involvement Investment cost per kW Decrease of invest. costs Short term energy cost Med. & LT energy cost Pot. R&D breaktrhroughts Public acceptance Impacts on local environmt
Wind + + + + + + + + + + + + + to + + to -
Hydro + + + + - (SHP:+) - (SHP:+) + + - - to + + to - -
On an other hand, wind power presents specific advantages compared to hydropower. For example, wind projects are more simple to implement and wind turbines can be mass produced, two facts which in combination of research and development present progress and potential future breakthroughs can lead in the medium and long term to lower and very competitive wind energy costs. Also, due to the possibility of smaller projects and due to easier involvement of local investors, wind power technology might enjoy an easier social and environmental acceptance. So it is reasonable to think that wind power development in the 21st century will be faster than the hydro one in the 20th century, thus defining an
2. A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS A comparative analysis of hydropower and wind power advantages and limitations is summarised in table I. Specific advantages in favour of hydropower are mainly low cost of delivered energy, its use for multi purpose projects and its unique advantages for energy storage, particularly for grid management and stability. This last advantage will be more and more used in order to facilitate the large scale deployment of wind power within interconnected electric grids. This trend shows that hydropower and wind power are more complementary than in competition.
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Preprint - Conference "Wind Power for the 21st century" Kassel, Germany, 25-27 September 2000
“acceleration development.
factor"
in
favour
of
wind
power
its improvements in performance and its continuous decreases of investment and energy costs.
3. DEFINITION OF THE TWO SCENARIOS
4. DETAILED RESULTS FOR S1 AND S2
This “acceleration factor” is used to define basic assumptions for the two scenarios S1 and S2. S1 is based on the assumption of an acceleration factor of two: wind power may require only half the century hydropower required to grow from nearly zero to the present 2 500 TWh/year. And considering a realistic three fold development of hydropower in the next century [1], wind energy could surpass the corresponding 7 500 TW/year at the end of the twenty first century. S2 is defined by a higher acceleration factor, in order to allow wind power to deliver as much cumulated energy than hydropower in the next century, a value which could be over 540 000 TWh. For the two scenarios, the yearly net increase of operating wind power is defined by a Weibull distribution versus time, which at the end must verify the above long term conditions and also the short term conditions based on the best market predictions, the ones from BTM Consult published in 1999 for S1 [2] and in 2000 for S2 [3]. From the final Weibull distribution which fit best with short term and long term conditions and which are in fact Rayleigh distributions (shape factor K = 2), the annual values of world operating power are defined versus time. Results are shown in figure 1 below.
4.1 Yearly and cumulated energy delivery To calculate the yearly energy outputs, a mean overall annual capacity factor is assessed from its estimated present 18% value up to the 40% value assessed for 2100 due to increase of wind turbine performance, increased use in the future of large distant but high quality wind sites and offshore wind farms. Figure 2 below details the increase of this capacity factor. Overall capacity factor (%) 40 35 30 25 20 15 0
80
100
The resulting annual energy delivered from wind power are shown in figure 3 below. Hydropower outputs will increase from 2 500 TWh/year to 7 500 in the next century. The corresponding 2 500 TWh/year level is achieved in 2050 for S1 based on the “acceleration factor” of 2, and in 2037 for scenario S2, defining an acceleration factor of 2.7.
S2
40
60
Figure 2: Increase of the overall mean annual capacity factor for total wind operating power in the 21st century.
60 54
40
Year after 2000
Operating Power Variations (GW/y)
50
20
30
Yearly Energy Output (TWh/year) 29
20
S1
14000 12000
10
10000
0 0
20
40
60
80
S2
8000
100
Year after 2000
6000
Figure 1: Net increases of operating wind power in scenarios S1 and S2 (GW per year).
4000
Hydro
S1
2000
The maximum net yearly increases for S1 and S2 occur both around the middle of the next century with respective values of 29 and 54 GW/year.
0 0
The use of a Weibull distribution instead of a bell curve to define those yearly net increases gives them a continuous positive value during the next century, a logical trend as wind power technology is supposed to be used more and more in the next century due to its advantages for global environment,
20
40
60
80
100
Year after 2000 Figure 3: Yearly Wind and Hydro energy delivered in the 21st century (TWh/year) Relevant values of yearly energy delivery in 2100 are 7 500 and 14 000 TWh/year for S1 and S2. As the present
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Preprint - Conference "Wind Power for the 21st century" Kassel, Germany, 25-27 September 2000
world's exploitable wind resource is evaluated to 53 000 TWh/year [4], both S1 and S2 scenarios are not limited by available wind resource. The corresponding total energy outputs during the next century are impressive: more than 540 000 TWh for both hydro and wind in scenario S2 and around 300 000 TWh for wind only in scenario S1. Combining together hydro and wind in S1 or S2 gives an impressive values of 144 to 186 Gtoe of avoided use of fossil energy in the power sector in the next century if we consider an optimistic mean efficiency value of 50% for future world fossil based power generation. If we consider a mix of natural gas and coal for power generation with a mean value of 600 g of CO2 per kWh, the avoided equivalent carbon emissions vary from 137 to 177 GtC.
World Wind Operating Power (GW) S2
S1
BTM98
BTM99
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
4.2 Total installed operating power In order to compare different scenarios and predictions, total operating power for scenarios S1 and S2 are shown during all the next century in figure 4 below.
0
1
2
3 4 5 6 Year after 2000
7
8
Figure 5: Short term increases of operating power Total Operating Power (GW) 4.3 Markets The total annual wind power market consists in the sum of the annual net increase of operating power and the retrofit and replacement market. The later one is defined from the hypothesis of a mean 20 years period to retrofit or replace old wind turbines. The total annual markets are shown in figure 6 below.
4000 S2
3000
2000
1844
S1
Variation of Operating Power + Retrofit & Replacement (GW/y)
1056
1000
110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
0 0
20
40
60
80
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Year after 2000 Figure 4: Wind installed operating power (GW) Figure 5 below details the short term operating power increases up to 2008. One can verify the very precise accordance of scenarios S1 and S2 with the short term predictions from BTM Consult used for S1 [2] and for S2 [3].
105
S2
S1
56
0
20
40 60 Year after 2000
80
100
Figure 6: Total annual wind power market (GW/year) Maximum values for those total markets occur around 2060 and are 56 GW/year for scenario S1 and 105 GW/year for scenario S2. The retrofit and replacement market is shown in figure 7 below. It will be very huge and its maximum values will occur around 2070 with 29 GW/year and 54 GW/year for scenarios S1 and S2
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Preprint - Conference "Wind Power for the 21st century" Kassel, Germany, 25-27 September 2000
On the short term, one can see the good accordance between S1 and the BTM Consult “market trend” scenario and between S2 and the BTM Consult “international agreement” scenario. On the longer term, up to 2035, scenarios S1 and S2 are more conservative but they don’t present the “saturation level” effect one can see for the three other scenarios after 2030. And there is no rational reason for such a saturation effect.
Retrofit & Replacement (GW/year) 60 50
54 S2
40 30 20
S1
6. CONCLUSIONS
29
From this analysis between the past and the future development of hydropower and the future potential wind power development and from the results of scenarios S1 and S2 for wind power which are summarised in table II below, one can draw three main lessons and conclusions.
10 0 0
20
40 60 Year after 2000
80
100
Table II: main results for scenarios S1 and S2: Criterion
Figure 6: Retrofit and replacement wind power market (GW/year)
2500 TWh/year in Wind output = hydro in Cum. Wind output (PWh) Cum. Wind+Hydro (PWh) %Wind on Wind+Hydro Cum. Wind+Hydro (Gtep) Av. C by Wind+Hy. (Gtc)
5. COMPARISONS The results of operating power from 2000 to 2035 for scenarios S1 and S2 and for three other recent scenarios are presented in figure 7 below.
3000
Wind Force 10
2000 BTMia
1500
BTMmt 1000 S2 500 S1 0 0
5
10 15 20 25 Year after 2000
30
S2 2038 2060 542 1084 50% 186 177
The first one is that an “acceleration factor” from 2 to 3 in favour of wind energy deployment in the 21st century versus past hydropower one is possible, probable and desirable The second one is that the scenario S1 defined on the basis that yearly wind energy output will be over hydropower one at the end of the century, and which may seem conservative, gives an avoided fossil energy value from hydro plus wind in the 21st century which is 144 Gtoe of which 37% are from wind and which is more than the present value of oil proved reserves, which are estimated at 140 Gt. The third conclusion is related to the scenario S2 which is defined from the basic and realistic assumption that in the next century as much energy will be delivered from wind than from hydro and which gives more than 540 000 TWh from wind power only, a value which represents more than 90 Gtoe of avoided fossil fuels in the power sector from wind power in the 21st century. Clearly, from those orders of magnitude, wind power appears as a realistic and already available major player to decarbonise the world power sector in the coming century.
Operating Power (GW)
2500
S1 2050 2100 296 838 35% 144 137
35
Figure 7: Comparison between S1 and S2 scenarios and three recent scenarios from references [2] and [4].
REFERENCES [1] B. Chabot, La Houille Blanche, N° 2 (1998) 59 [2] BTM Consult, International Wind Energy Development, World market update 1998 (1999) [3] BTM Consult, International Wind Energy Development, World market update 1999 (2000) [4] EWEA, fed, Greenpeace, Wind Force 10 (1999)
The first two recent scenarios are from reference [2]: “BTMmarket trends” and “BTMinternational agreements” published by BTM Consult in 1999. The third one is the scenario “Wind Force 10” [4]. This scenario is derived from the BTM "international agreement" one and is based on a potential and voluntary 10% contribution of wind power to the world electricity production in 2020.
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Preprint - Conference "Wind Power for the 21st century" Kassel, Germany, 25-27 September 2000
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