Presentation title - Faurecia

27 juin 2017 - Faurecia will offer broad range of technology solutions to enlarged .... Integrated low pressure ..... processes (e.g. semi-conductor). ▫ Diesel ...
2MB taille 10 téléchargements 617 vues
Investor Day Sustainable Mobility

June 27, 2017

Agenda

1

Introduction

Patrick Koller

2

Growth via technology in automotive

Mathias Miedreich

3

Growth beyond automotive

Curt Miller

4

Electric vehicles

Christophe Bouly

5

Star Technologies

Annika Isaksson Christophe Bouly

6

Faurecia Clean Mobility leadership

Christophe Schmitt

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

2

Agenda

1

Introduction

Patrick Koller

2

Growth via technology in automotive

Mathias Miedreich

3

Growth beyond automotive

Curt Miller

4

Electric vehicles

Christophe Bouly

5

Star Technologies

Annika Isaksson Christophe Bouly

6

FCM performance leadership

Christophe Schmitt

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

3

2012 – 2016 Accelerating value creation and strategic flexibility CAGR +11%

Order intake: three year rolling Value-added sales in € billion

CAGR +22% (in €m)

Operating margin % of value-added sales 6.2 5.4

53 4.3

47

3.5

43 2012 - 2014

2013 - 2015

2014 - 2016

2013

2014

Net debt in € million 2013

2014

2016

22%

342

1,519

963

53 15%

1,388

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

2016

ROCE*

2015

47

2015

2013 4

25%

16% 2014

2015

2016

2017 will be major step to achieve 2018 objectives

+6%

+400 bp above market

2017 Value-added sales growth

2017 GUIDANCE 6.4 - 6.8% > €350m of VA sales 2017 Operating margin

2017 Net cash flow

Around €4 2017 Earnings per share

2018 OBJECTIVES +6%

7%

+400 bp above market

of VA sales

> €500m

€5

Value-added sales CAGR 2016 - 2018

2018 Operating margin

2018 Net cash flow

2018 Earnings per share

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

5

Strategic priorities Sustainable mobility and smart life on board

Market growth* €25 billion by 2030

Become a valued key player in the new automotive landscape providing intelligent solutions for an enhanced and sustainable driving experience * Value added sales

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

6

Market growth* €40 billion by 2030

Many different powertrains will co-exist driven by different urbanization patterns Relevance of powertrain type

Global population by city archetype (billion) Optimized ICE

8.6 7.3

0.7 0.4

0.6 0.3

1.5

1.1 2.8

2.1

Hybrids

Electric

High income, suburban sprawl (eg Los Angeles)

Hybrid, BEV, FCEV*

High income, dense cities (eg London)

Hybrid, BEV**

Green Gasoline, Hybrid, FCEV

Low income, suburban sprawl (eg Chongqing)

Low income, dense cities (eg Mumbai)

3.2

3.2

2015

2030

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

Green Gasoline, BEV

Green Gasoline, Hybrid, BEV, FCEV

Rural areas

Not relevant

Source: McKinsey center for Future Mobility

* Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle 7

Typical technologies

Highly relevant ** Battery Electric Vehicle

Faurecia will offer broad range of technology solutions to enlarged customer base 

Increase in technology content for all types of passenger car 





Average content/vehicle increase by at least 60% by 2030

New markets becoming emissionized creating new opportunities 

Commercial Vehicles: on and off highway



High Horsepower/Industry

Electric vehicles and new mobility solutions are an opportunity for Faurecia 

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV)



Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV)



Real time data emissions

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

8

Strategy to reach > €10 billion sales in Clean Mobility by 2030 >7% CAGR 2016-2030 

Freedom from powertrain mix



High value content on electric vehicles



Leverage existing technologies and competencies into adjacent markets



Expand breakthrough DeNox technologies into new markets



Develop service offer based on real-time data emissions



Increased market share across the board



Increased profitability, cash generation and ROCE

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

9

Agenda

1

Introduction

Patrick Koller

2

Growth via technology in automotive

Mathias Miedreich

3

Growth beyond automotive

Curt Miller

4

Electric vehicles

Christophe Bouly

5

Star Technologies

Annika Isaksson Christophe Bouly

6

FCM performance leadership

Christophe Schmitt

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

10

Faurecia’s vision of powertrain electrification In line with market consensus LIGHT VEHICLES: GLOBAL POWERTRAIN MIX TO 2030 Faurecia Vision 3%

11% Pure EV

Roland Berger 3%

BCG 3%

10% Pure EV

11% Pure EV

13%

17%

19%

IHS 3%

5% Pure EV

19% 34% Hybrids

38% Hybrids

36% Hybrids

12% ICE Diesel

83%

79%

77%

2025

2030

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

77% 51% ICE Gasoline

42% ICE Gasoline

2020

15% ICE Diesel

3% ICE Diesel

11% ICE Diesel

2016

35% Hybrids

46% ICE Gasoline

40% ICE Gasoline

2016

2020

2025

2030

2016

11

2020

2025

2030

2016

2020

2025

2030

Internal combustion engines (ICE) will remain dominant Electrification is a clear trend Worldwide volume by powertrain (million units)

103.1 0.2

93.0

3.1

5.6

23.7

17.8

108.0 6.5

32.4

2.3

116.5 10.4

Key trends TOTAL VOLUME

+ 1.5 to 2.0% CAGR

ICE VOLUME

+ 0.7 to 1.1% CAGR

DIESEL

- 30 to 50%

HYBRID

x 7 to 9

BEV

x 50

FUEL CELL

Take off post 2025

Electric Vehicle (BEV & FCEV)

43.3

14.4 12.9 12.4

69.4

61.9

56.2

2017

2022

2025

ICE gas

ICE diesel

Hybrids

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

ICE Engine

48.1

2030 BEV

Fuel cell

12

CO2 regulation in all key geographies will drive system content increase in particular for hybrid vehicles CO2 targets

Faurecia star technologies

g/km

€/vehicle Faurecia accessible market in value added sales*

Integrated low pressure EGR 150

Gasoline

Ultra-compact Energy recovery

130

110 95

Electric Heated Catalyst

2020

2025

Gasoline Particulate filter

160

2020

170

+30%

210

Hybrid

Real Time CO2 Emissions

Current

2020 2025

Sources: ICCT, FCM analysis Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

Current

2025

Lightweight technologies (10g CO2 = 130 kg) 2015

Emission control system value

170

+70%

190 290

*European average excluding monoliths

310

13

360

Reduction of diesel share is improving Faurecia's value mix Faurecia's vision: NOx targets

Faurecia star technologies

Emission control system value

Base 100 in 2016 100

€/vehicle Value added sales*

Electric Heated Catalyst

Diesel +67% - Faurecia content + 17%

Ultra-Compact SCR BlueBox®

50

Diesel Particulate Filter Lightweight technologies

Current

180

2020

190

2025

270

210

20

ASDSTM 2015

2020

2025

Real Time Emissions

Faurecia accessible content

Total content Sources: ICCT, FCM analysis Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

*European average excluding monoliths 14

425 450

Faurecia Clean Mobility sales on light vehicles will outpace the market FCM ICE LIGHT VEHICLE VA SALES (€bn) Growth drivers 7.7 +5% CAGR

3.9

6.2

4.7

2016

2020

2025

2030

CAGR 16-30

Market size (€bn)

14.4

16.0

21.5

27.0

4.6%

Market share

27%

29%

29%

29%

Based on Faurecia vision for global powertrain mix 2030, excluding pure EV sales Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

15



Faurecia will outpace the market growth, enabled by a strong innovation & technology portfolio for all powertrains



Reduction of diesel share is improving Faurecia's value mix



Faurecia Clean Mobility sales growth for ICE light vehicles secured even if EV share almost triples

Agenda

1

Introduction

Patrick Koller

2

Growth via technology in automotive

Mathias Miedreich

3

Growth beyond automotive

Curt Miller

4

Electric vehicles

Christophe Bouly

5

Star Technologies

Annika Isaksson Christophe Bouly

6

FCM performance leadership

Christophe Schmitt

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

16

On-Highway: Regulations in China and India will significantly increase average content per vehicle from 2020 Faurecia's vision on regulation

2016

CHINA

INDIA

CN IV BS III

2022

CN V

CN VI

BS IV

BS VI

EPA 10

USA

E.U.

2019

EU VI

EU VI D

2025 CN VI

Key technologies

Regulation impact on future emissionized vehicles

Complete system breakthrough

€/vehicle Faurecia accessible market in value added sales*

Diesel Oxidation Catalyst + Diesel Particulate Filter + Mixer + SCR

D*

Current

BS VI

24* EU VII*

40% reduction in weight 60% space saving ASDSTM Best deNOx technology

350

India Current

Major content change

*excluding monoliths 17

+215%

95

BS VI

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

+130%

150

China VI

D* CARB

China

300

Off-Highway: China and India content per vehicle increases dramatically Faurecia's vision on regulation

Key technologies

Regulation impact on future emissionized vehicles €/vehicle Faurecia accessible market in value added sales*

2016

2019

2022

2025

China CHINA INDIA

USA

E.U.

China III (Stage IIIA)

China NR IV (Stage IIIB)*

BS III (Stage IIIA)

Tier 4*

Tier 4 Final

Tier 5*

Stage IV

Stage V

Current

Diesel Oxidation Catalyst + Diesel Particulate Filter

China NR IV

400

India ASDSTM Current

Major content change

*excluding monoliths 18

x10

30

Tier IV

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

x8

50

300

Commercial vehicles Faurecia targets 27% market share globally by 2030 2016 market share

12%

Highly fragmented

Competitor A

Drivers of increased market share 

Globalization of engine strategies favors two global actors



Patented technologies and innovations e.g. Compact mixer, ASDSTM



Strategic partnerships and JVs with key customers

China 38% of market volume Others

21%

31%

Competitor B 17%

17%

Global Partnership

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

Others 10%

JV / strategic relationship

14% Dongfeng

19

India 10% of market volume 28%

Commercial opportunies

Volvo 20% Ashok Leyland 22%

29%

19%

Global Partnership

Strategic relationship

Faurecia sales on commercial vehicles to grow more than twice as fast as the market FCM COMMERCIAL VEHICLE VA SALES (€bn) Growth drivers

1.5 +12.2% CAGR

1.0

0.7



Huge impact in value due to tightened regulations in China and India



Technology as a key driver for market share gain



Global platform and strategic partnership

0.3

2016

2020

2025

2030

CAGR 16-30

Market size (€bn)

2.5

3.4

4.8

5.5

5.8%

Market share

12%

21%

21%

27%

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

20

High Horsepower and industrial applications offer adjacent market opportunities for our technologies Emissionized adjacent markets

After treatment for High Horsepower engines

Applications

Medium & low speed



Marine propulsion

> 5,000 Horsepower



Marine power supply



Power generation



Railway



Construction



Industrial



Semiconductor industry



LCD panel industry

High speed

C > 750 Horsepower

DeNOx for Industry

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

Manufacturing sites

21

High Horsepower will be more and more emissionized HHP REGULATION DEVELOPMENT IN KEY GEOGRAPHIES

Power Generation

Global

Key regulations reinforced between 2022 and 2025

Local NAO Europe

HHP

China India ROW 2015

2020

>80% emissionized

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

2021

2022

50%-80% emissionized

2023

2024

20%-50% emissionized

22

2025

2030

10%

≈ 20%

Operating margin

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

24

Agenda

1

Introduction

Patrick Koller

2

Growth via technology in automotive

Mathias Miedreich

3

Growth beyond automotive

Curt Miller

4

Electric vehicles

Christophe Bouly

5

Star Technologies

Annika Isaksson Christophe Bouly

6

FCM performance leadership

Christophe Schmitt

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

25

Fuel cell and battery electric vehicles will coexist on different segments 2030 COMPARED PERFORMANCE OF BATTERY AND FUEL CELL Battery EV

Fuel cell EV

Short Range Vehicles €3,000



Faurecia Clean Mobility significant sales potential over €0.7bn by 2030



Potential sales not included in FCM electric vehicle sales forecast

Production 



Stainless steel expertise and high purchasing power Global Faurecia footprint

29

Faurecia targeting around 20% market share on battery pack and fuel cell tank sales FCM ELECTRIC VEHICLE (BEV & FCEV) VA SALES* (€bn) Growth drivers 0.8 

+21.7% CAGR

Faurecia Clean Mobility is developing product offer for battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles 

0.3 

0

0

2016

2020

2025

2030

CAGR 25-30

Market size (€bn)

0.2

0.4

1.7

4.0

18.7%

Market share

0%

0%

18%

20%

* Excluding fuel stacks Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

30

Battery packs and fuel cell tanks allow €300 average content for electric vehicles by 2030 Fuel cell stacks would represent over €0.7bn additional revenue potential



Expanding competencies through partnerships such as with Stelia, Ad-Venta, CEA and building on thermal management and energy efficiency expertise



One Faurecia fuel cell vehicle will be on the road in 2019

Agenda

1

Introduction

Patrick Koller

2

Growth via technology in automotive

Mathias Miedreich

3

Growth beyond automotive

Curt Miller

4

Electric vehicles

Christophe Bouly

5

Star Technologies

Annika Isaksson Christophe Bouly

6

FCM performance leadership

Christophe Schmitt

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

31

ASDSTM Best-in-class deNOx technology allowing real-time date monitoring

5

NOx tracker

NOx emissions (base 1)

4

3 2

Adblue

ASDSTM installation

1

ASDSTM



Ammonia gas stored in a salt



Best deNOx performance at low temperatures (e.g. city driving)



ASDSTM can reduce NOx emissions by a factor of up to 4 vs. Adblue

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

32



Live monitoring of deNOx performance of each vehicle



Providing real time performance data to cities & mobility operator

Growth potential ASDSTM unique performance makes it suitable for many uses ASDSTM APPLICATIONS Industrial

Bus and Truck

NOx removal for city driving vehicles and cold climates

NOx removal in manufacturing plants, & industrial diesel

Opportunity: passenger cars

Superior deNOx performance (RDE in cities & cold climates)



Retrofit of existing city trucks and buses: e.g. London, Seoul, Copenhagen, …



Industrial emissions: cleaning of intensive NOx generating processes (e.g. semi-conductor)



Retrofit of existing cars to support upcoming city emission regulations



First Fit on new city vehicles: comply with regulations while saving energy



Diesel generators: deNOx of exhaust gas for gen-sets working at low temperatures



First Fit on hybrid diesel cars running at low temperatures



Combination system Adblue & ASDSTM

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

33

Retrofit Cost effective solution to improve air quality in the short term ASDSTM Retrofit more effective than fleet conversion to electric

Retrofit volume potential 26 million commercial vehicles

For fleet of 5,000 buses

Commercial vehicles fleet (million)

Investment NOx removed (€m) over 8 years over 8 years (tons) Retrofit

75

18,700 x33

Electric conversion

2,500

26

€ per kg of NOx removed

Japan/Korea

5

NAO pre-EPA07

9

Europe EU IV & V

9

China CN III & IV

4 x0.7

13,325

x47

188

ASDSTM retrofit achievable in 3 years Electric vehicle migration not achievable in less than 8 years for full fleet

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

3

34

Around 400 buses already equipped and >30 million km driven

Seoul (Korea) Order received for 20,000 buses and trucks

London (UK) Tender for 5,000 buses ongoing

Copenhagen (DK) 300 buses equipped 30m km driven

In discussions with Aachen, Austin, airports, Indianopolis, Lyon, Munich, Portland, Santiago, USA school buses….. Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

35

Accessible market size is almost €3bn by 2025 ASDSTM SYSTEM: 2025 MARKET OPPORTUNITY (VA SALES €m) €1,600m Retrofit

1

25%

€1,100m

3 50%

2

First fit

Growth strategy

75%

4 50%

Priority 1: commercial vehicles & industrial

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

Priority 2: diesel generators & light vehicles

36

1

Retrofit market for city vehicles

2

First fit OEM business for city driving commercial vehicles

3

Develop LV retrofit solution for light vehicles and industry

4

Enable city Low Emission Zone (LEZ) driving: ultra green diesel

Long-term sales target to reach >€1.0bn with superior profitability FCM ASDSTM SYSTEM VA SALES* (€m) Growth Drivers > 1,000



Unique, patented deNOx performance in real road conditions (incl. low engine temperature)



Perfectly suited for city vehicles and industry in retrofit and first fit applications



Access to NOx performance data in real time sold to cities



A new market up to €2.7bn by 2025

+25% CAGR

400 100

0 2016

2020

2025

2030

Superior profitability driven by cartridge refilling and services Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

37

Gasoline Low Pressure EGR system gives up to 10g CO2 reduction in real driving conditions

EGR stands for Exhaust Gas Recirculation Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

38

Strong market growth at 25% CAGR driven by regulations and fuel savings Gasoline low pressure EGR system addressable market (€ bn)

Gasoline low pressure EGR system market drivers

5.4 +25% CAGR



Key technology to reduce CO2 for gasoline turbo engines



In 2030, more than 50 million engines will require Low Pressure EGR systems

2.2

0.6 2020

2025

2030

EGR stands for Exhaust Gas Recirculation Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

39

Faurecia will achieve 20% market share and over €1bn revenue by 2030 FCM LOW PRESSURE EGR SYSTEMS SALES (€bn) Growth Drivers 1.1



Faurecia is uniquely positioned as a systems integrator enabling breakthrough offer with 30% less volume and cost



Faurecia technology allows up to 10g CO2 reduction



Development partnership with strategic customer

+30% CAGR

0.3 0 2020

2025

2030

Superior margin potential driven by high technology content of integrated system EGR stands for Exhaust Gas Recirculation Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

40

Real time emissions for clean cities

Cities / Mobility operators’ needs



Cities compliance with mandatory Air Quality improvement targets



Clean Mobility in Smart Cities initiatives (C40)



Monitoring and incentives for environmental-friendly driving behaviors

Faurecia will provide real time emissions through smart sensors and digital services Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

41

Real time emissions for clean cities is an important market opportunity Market opportunities

Digital service and sensors market*

LV fleet, million vehicles

€bn

Connected car 2.7

New opportunities thanks to car data generation and analytics +39% CAGR

1,050 550

0.7 0.1

70 2020

2025

2030

2020

2025

Smart mobility New disruptive services * Assuming sensors become obligatory equipment on all vehicles Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

42

2030

Real time emissions for clean cities will generate €0.8bn revenue by 2030 FCM REAL TIME EMISSIONS SALES* (€bn) Growth Drivers 0.8

+44% CAGR



NOx Tracker know how



Expertise & exclusive technology

0.2

2020

2025



2030

Superior margin potential driven by recurring revenue business model * Assuming sensors become obligatory equipment on all vehicles Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

43



Emissions measurement (sensors)



Data acquisition and analytics

Strategic partnerships with startups and top IT players

Agenda

1

Introduction

Patrick Koller

2

Growth via technology in automotive

Mathias Miedreich

3

Growth beyond automotive

Curt Miller

4

Electric vehicles

Christophe Bouly

5

Star Technologies

Annika Isaksson Christophe Bouly

6

Faurecia Clean Mobility leadership

Christophe Schmitt

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

44

Bright future for clean mobility market KEY MARKET DRIVERS

Market growth* 2016 – 2030 + €25bn Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

* Value added sales



Stringent regulations and new ultra green technology breakthroughs



All markets getting emissionized including China, India CV, HHP engines, industrial



Nearly 50% of the market will be electrified: a great opportunity



Smart Cities will drive new Clean Mobility requirements



Accurate real time emissions data key to restoring trust and enabling Clean Mobility 45

Strong technology ecosystem enables higher technology content and access to new mobility fields Share of new technologies in value added sales

Technology and market ecosystem Air Quality / Acoustics

NDA

Innovation

HHP / CV

32% 60%

NDA

Electrification NDA

Baseline

68% 40%

NDA

Real Time Emission

NDA

NDA

NDA

Investment Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

Partnership

Exploration 46

2020

2025



New technologies spend: 21% CAGR 2016-20



# patents 40% CAGR 2016-20

Leading Clean Mobility with >€10bn revenues in 2030 including €3bn of high technology new business FAURECIA VALUE ADDED SALES BY MARKET SEGMENT (€bn) >10.7 > 7% CAGR

5.5

7.9 0.3 0.4

Electric vehicles

0.8 0.7

CAGR 23% 2025-2030

HHP/Industrial

CAGR 21% 2020-2030

1.5

Commercial vehicles CAGR 12% 2016-2030

0.7

3.9

2016

Light vehicles

7.7

0.3

CAGR 5% 2016-2030

6.2

4.7

2020

2025

Innovation & business development

2030

47

800



CAPEX

1,600



Combined: €400m per year



Around 7% of VA sales

Asset light

Based on Faurecia vision for global powertrain mix 2030 Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017



1.0

0.1

4.2

Investment in €m 2017 -2022

Faurecia Clean Mobility will more than triple operating income with high cash conversion

In €m

2016

2020

2025

2030

CAGR (in %) 2016 - 2030

Value added sales

4,195

5,500

7,900

>10,700

>7%

o/w LV

3,855

4,700

6,200

7,700

5%

o/w CVE, HHP & other

340

800

1,700

>3,000

17%

Operating income

394

around 600

around 1,000

> 1,500

11%

Margin in %

9.4%

11%

> 12%

15%

-

Cash flow conversion (in % of operating income)

around 50%

50 - 55%

> 55%

> 55%

-

ROCE (in%)

28%

28 - 30%

> 30%

> 30%

-

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

48

Strategic transformation of Faurecia Clean Mobility Strategic Drivers

Vision



Be the leading clean mobility company with benchmark technology and profitability



 

Strategic freedom vs powertrain mix 

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017

New clean emissions value spaces through innovation for ICE & hybrid Expand commercial vehicles & industrial

Solutions for electric vehicles & new mobility

49

Ambition 2030

Value added sales 

> €10bn



> 7% CAGR 2016-2030

Profitability 

> €1.5bn operating income



15% of VA sales

Other financials 

Cash conversion > 55%



ROCE >30%

Investor Day – London – June 27, 2017