Sébastien Dufour | 200584299
Energy: Science & Policy School of Earth and Environment
May 9, 2011 | Energy: Science & Policy
Earth & Environment
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Sébastien Dufour | 200584299
“Without major changes in how we produce and use energy, we face significant risks to our common energy security and the future of the environment” Nobuo Tanaka, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Ministerial Meeting on Clean Energy, Washington, July 19, 2010.
May 9, 2011 | Energy: Science & Policy
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Sébastien Dufour | 200584299
Topic Discuss the challenges of maintaining security of energy supply for the UK, and how meeting this objective interacts with other policy objectives.
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ince the beginning of the 20th century, in order to transport electricity in high voltage and consequently reduce the losses, electricity power plants were centralized and knew mostly growing in production quantity and in size. It can be explained by the world high dependence on fossil fuels.
May 9, 2011 | Energy: Science & Policy
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Sébastien Dufour | 200584299
In United Kingdom, the dramatic increase in gaspowered electricity generation, from 0.5% in 1990 to 43% in 2007, which resulted from the privatization of electricity and gas companies, in addition to the non fossil fuel objectives in 1990s, led the country to a reduction of CO2 emission. Those objectives, assumed at the beginning by an increase of CHP and mainly supporting nuclear power, were changed after the commitment by Labor government in 1997 for a new and strong drive to expand renewable sources of energy, in which they saw the way to develop new technologies, create new jobs and tacking the global environment challenges.
The renewable obligations came into operation in April 2002, with the plan to increase decentralized production. This policy is included in the September 27th of 2001 European Directive objectives, about the promotion of electricity produced with renewable energy sources, in which the European Union take the engagement to rise from 15 to 22% before 2010, the part of renewable energy in the electricity consumption.
This trend leads to a worrying problematic which is how the United Kingdom will be able to assure the security electricity supplying interacting with his energy policy and the European requirements?
The current energy policy of the UK is exposed in the White Paper 2007 which replaces this from 2003, a little beat utopian in suggesting that renewable energy combined with improvements in efficient use of energy will be a sufficient amount to satisfy the electricity needs without restoring the nuclear capacity, an important part of the base production. The 2008 White Paper fixes this inaccuracy about nuclear power, by including it in the future low carbon energy mix. Nevertheless, the White Paper 2007, which is the European energy policy echo, in accordance with the fact that 20% of the energy consumption in Europe has to be produced with renewable sources by 2020, leads to technical problems in its application. It engaged the UK to produce 40% of its electricity from renewables, whereas they produce currently 4.5%. To achieve these very ambitious targets, the United Kingdom has made the choice of wind power and prevents the construction of 7000 offshore wind generators in the North Sea from 2008 to 2020. Moreover the rising of the energy cost due to this choice, wind energy is ten times more expensive than energy from fossil or nuclear sources. The fact that this area is workable only 60 days per year and that the UK has just one equipment usable to offshore turbine construction cause some logistic problems.
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Sébastien Dufour | 200584299
However finding the way to realize these projects on time may be the lowest problem that UK will have to face, because of this renewable energy focusing. The electricity supplying is menaced.
The project to dismantle the two nuclear power plants, Hunterston and Hinkley, respectively 7.4GW and 9.8GW, additionally the shutting of the 12GW coal and oil stations provided by the EU Directive (LCPD) in order to reduce the GHG emissions, represents a total of 23GW. In other words the equivalent of 30% of the production capacity, would be closed by 2020 and 35GW so 45% by 2027. This base electricity production has to be replaced and even if the renewable energy has a place in the energy mix, because of the lack of predictability among others problems, it would never be able to be considered as a base electricity production.
Furthermore, one of the first objectives of the renewable energy, being small decentralized production in order to reduce the transportation losses, upon further research it doesn’t seem to be very efficient. Indeed, losses in the high-voltage transmission lines are only around 2% whereas it is near than 5% on local network. The same reflection can be done with the cogeneration plant. Even if Greenpeace mentions CHP plants of 90% of efficiency and compares it with the electrical efficiency of nuclear or fossil fuel power stations the efficiency of CHP stations is on average around 70%, and it is the addition of the thermal efficiency and the electricity efficiency. When we take a closer look and compare what is comparable, we see that electricity efficiency on CHP is in the low 20%s according to UK energy statistics and the better CHP combined cycles stations achieve only 60% of efficiency in maximum whereas heat generators are often over 90% efficient. And if we keep in mind that CHP power relies on gas energy, one of the highest CO2 emitter, the savings in CO2 emissions from CHP in not evident. The security of energy supply is becoming a critical problem regarding the energy gap which is progressively taking place and will be really present after the loss of one third of its electricity
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Sébastien Dufour | 200584299
production capacity. The more probable resource which could be used to fill in this gap would be the gas. Nonetheless, the country’s stocks are seriously decreasing and the United Kingdom would has to import 80% of his gas consumption in 2020. Once again, the financial problem that those imports would cause is not the main consequence of this dependence. UK’s gas and oil suppliers, Russia and Middle East countries, cannot be considered as secure resources because of their political instability. Therefore, these importations are not certain and UK has to rely on other energy to supply its population. Besides, this increase in consumption of a fossil fuel emitting CO2 is completely at the opposite of both the political purpose of United Kingdom and European Union.
In order to see the country still be supplied in electricity, the government has to keep this obligation as its main objective and adopt a realistic strategy for long-term energy production but also and mainly for short-term supplying.
Concerning the long-term, the declared skepticism about the nuclear energy which has led to the dismantling plan of two nuclear power plants in the 2003 White Paper was revised with the 2008 White Paper. The ability to provide large quantity of CO2 free electricity, the improvements in efficiency and the impressive security and safety requirements has managed to convince the United Kingdom to have confidence in the third Generation nuclear power plant. The construction of one EPR, the third generation reactor from AREVA is in discussion and a second one is in a good way. To place nuclear generation as the base electricity production in its energy mix is a significant investment which secures this part of production but only for the long-term. In fact, the EPR is an important centralized power plant, more than the 10 years required to its building, its needs some adjustments on the grid to include it. Even if this project will
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create employment and dynamism, it will more consume energy than produce, for the next ten years. Consequently, nuclear power cannot be a pragmatic solution to bridge the energy gap by 2016.
The construction of a Severn barrage would have to be reconsidered again. Hydroelectricity is a renewable energy which needs a considerable investment, however it is a reliable energy which could provide 5% of the country’s needs. The cost of a barrage should have to be compared to offshore wind project price, in term of life cycle cost and should be lowered to its cost by energy produced. Even if hydroelectricity is sure, in accordance with the European requirement concerning the renewable energy rate and is provide free carbon electricity, as the nuclear power, it require consequent investment of time and money and cannot be considered to fill the pressing energy production gap.
A tidal lagoon is a second project proponed to exploit the energy potential of the Severn Estuary. This renewable energy which has been qualified of “mechanically mature, environmentally acceptable and economically self-sustaining” by the AEA Technology, an exterior consultant for the project, is a technology which use the changes in water levels to produce electricity. The principal advantage of a lagoon is his exploitation capacity and consequently the cost of electricity generated. Even so, the scope of this project should give rise to a prior discussion of the same magnitude and UK must find also a short-term energy supplying solution.
Although these different long-term actions are interesting points for the UK to answer to its population electricity consumption with an internal production, it would not be able to replace the May 9, 2011 | Energy: Science & Policy
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Sébastien Dufour | 200584299
23GW power generation turned off by 2020 and the 35GW by 2027. Gas-fired stations needs only 4 years of construction and seems to be the standard option for the government, but only 4.5GW are under construction for the moment.
Another option which is offer to the UK to fill this gap can be replacing its old and pollutant coal stations by new more efficient coal stations associated with carbon capture and storage systems. Coal provides 34% of the electricity in the UK and resources for this energy are comfortable, still relying on coal to provide an important part of electricity would be a good point. Nevertheless this solution cannot be reliable without being associated with CCS. The country has important storage capacity, the equivalent of 500 years of UK emissions of CO2 could be stored so up to 7.16*10^11 tones of CO2. UK has already invested up to £ 1 billion in the first demonstration CCS project, which is the largest in the world and aims to be operational by 2014.
The United Kingdom has focused its investment accorded to renewable energy mainly on wind power which is one of the most expensive technologies in term of price per energy produced. Others renewable energy like biomass and especially co-firing should be more estimated. Using wood or green waste to feed in part coal-fire station would firstly have environment interests but also be really financially interesting for the government.
Others renewable thermal production which are individual and consequently don’t require any transport or distribution have to be highlighted by the government in order to promote people’s interest in it. Individual wood boiler or solar water-heater are both very economic in energy but still have a quiet long return on investment without financial help from the government.
In dedicating a large part of their energy-mix the UK also needs to restructure its grid. The construction of 7000 wind turbines means also an important number of distributed generators which have to be connected on the distribution grid. Considering the closure off large centralized power plants the transport grid will also needs to be modified. Scotland particularly, will welcome a significant number of renewable energy generators so in order to minimize the effect of the
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Sébastien Dufour | 200584299
fluctuation in the wind electricity production and still be able to ensure properly the equilibrium between production and consumption and keep good tension and frequency levels without overcharge or underuse others power plants the UK’s grid and moreover the Scotland’s grid need to be well interconnected with European’s on in order to have a regulating energy enough important. Moreover being interconnected with the other country give to the UK the opportunity to import electricity which they need, it would be an expensive but a reliable way to assure the security electricity supplying. Germany, since its new out of nuclear energy policy has chosen this option. In fact, with closing its nuclear power plant Germany which exported 15% of its electricity production will now import 30% of its consumption, mainly electricity produced in France, by nuclear power.
To put it in a nutshell, climate changes make that reorganization in the world energy production is necessary in order to reduce our GHG emission. However this changes need a transition step and consequently a short-term and a long-term energy strategy are necessary to slow down global warming and assure the security electricity supplying.
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