The threat of fishing overcapacity to the sustainability of small pelagic fisheries The abundance of small pelagic fish species, like sardine and anchovy, varies considerably from year to year. These variations are driven by natural climate variability, and result in irregular (between a few years and a couple of decades) periods of high and low abundance. In general, small pelagic fisheries suffer from industry overcapitalization. One of the causes for this is that industry investment grows rapidly in response to periods of high stock abundance, while disinvestment does not respond to the same degree, or as fast, to periods of low biomass. The interaction between natural cycles of fish stock abundance, overcapacity, and the patterns of investment/disinvestment in the industry represent a threat to the viability of fisheries where the access to fish is not strongly controlled. Here we suggest measures to control investment and minimize this problem, using the Peruvian pelagic fishery as a case study. This case study was selected because it contributes >9% of the world’s marine catches but also because >70% of its fishing capacity (i.e. fleet) and almost 90% of its processing capacity are currently unused.

Decadal fluctuations + overcapacity = a TIME BOMB From records of fish scale deposits in marine sediments we know that decadal fluctuations of pelagic fish abundance existed long before modern industrial exploitation developed. Recent studies off Peru confirm this finding, with high and low abundance periods ranging from 20 to above 100 years for anchovy and sardine (Figure 1). The present stock abundance of anchovy appears to at the peak of an abundance cycle (Figure 2).

Fisheries overcapacity is a global issue caused Humboldt anchovy by a number of factors, including open access Photograph: A. Bertrand, IRD, France. to the resource and national subsidies to fishing fleets. Furthermore, it is easy to build capacity (more vessels, processing plants, etc.) when resources expand and catches are high, but difficult to reduce it when resources decline (as seen in Figure 2). The main reason for this pattern is that boats and fish plants are longterm investments that need several decades to be paid off. The hope for “better days” tends to delay disinvestment and puts pressure on management agencies to continue exploiting resources even when their abundance has declined. A simplified theoretical bio-economic model has been used to demonstrate that, in a situation of open access, when stocks enter a declining phase, delays in disinvestment increase fishing overcapacity dramatically. The first consequence of this pattern is an economic collapse of the fisheries. Commonly, this happens when the market does not respond to the reduction in fish by a proportional increase in price. The second effect is a collapse of the stock itself due to overexploitation (Figure 3). While this can be prevented through strong management control, this is not often the case when management agencies have to balance ecological pressures with the social and economical pressures of the fishing sector. -2 -2 Anchovy scalefluxes abundance (1000xx N N cm y-1)y-1) Anchovy scale (1000 cm

Background

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Figure 1. Time-series of anchovy fish-scale fluxes off Callao and Pisco, central Peru, estimated from anoxic sediment records. Courtesy of Dimitri Gutiérrez (unpublished data).

August 2008

Fact Sheet 10.

Adapting to fluctuations

The magnitude and quasi-periodicity of these fluctuations requires an even stronger need to reduce fishing and processing capacity to reasonable levels. Although this is likely to have some negative short-term social and economic consequences, it would also have positive effects on the costs of production and therefore have implications for food security. Along with capacity reductions, measures need to be put in place to decrease the time lag between changes in abundance and investment/disinvestment so as to limit the compounding effect on fish stocks.

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Biomass and catches (million t)

Despite the long history of fisheries and fishery management, it is only recently that we have become aware of the magnitude of natural abundance fluctuations. For too long scientists considered these fluctuations of secondary importance compared to the consequences of fishing. While they were known to exist, they were too often considered to be minor random fluctuations rather than ample quasi-cyclic trends. The reasons for their existence are still not fully understood and therefore their precise timing remains unpredictable. Yet, their quasi-periodicity makes it imperative to incorporate them in management systems in order to avoid fisheries and/or stock collapses. More research is required to incorporate this factor of risk into fishery management.

Total pelagic catch Total pelagics Anchovy biomass VPA MA Total Central-North HC

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Figure 2. Comparison of the dynamics of the Peruvian pelagic fleet (expressed in total holding capacity, HC*) with the dynamics of the major exploited resource (3-year moving average of the biomass of the north-central stock of anchovy) and the total pelagic catches of the fleet. *Holding Capacity = the number of metric tons of fish a vessel can carry.

Action points

1. Fishing and processing overcapacities must be reduced and maintained at reasonable levels in order to prevent further crises in the small pelagic fishing sector. 2. This can be achieved through management options aimed at encouraging a stronger commitment to conservation by fishers individually and collectively (e.g. through long term allocation of fishing rights to communities; comanagement by local communities, etc.). 3. Several options of overcapacity reduction must be studied (Fréon et al., Marine Science Bulletin, 76(2): 385462 2005). 4. Once overcapacity has been adjusted to present needs, a faster reactivity to natural decadal cycles of abundance must be adopted. 5. Decisions on points 1-4 must be based on socioeconomic simulations that involve all stakeholders. 6. Further research is also needed to incorporate natural fish abundance cycles in management systems, particularly to identify and ultimately predict when a new cycle has started.

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Figure 3. Time series of carrying capacity, stock abundance, available (bold curve) or used (thin curve) fishing capacity and yields resulting from a theoretical simulation analysis of fish populations with periodic carrying capacity, asymmetrical investment/disinvestment patterns and catch controlled by quota (Fréon et al., in press, Progr. Oceanography).

Part of the Peruvian fleet of purse-seiners based at Chimbote, Peru. Photograph: J.M. L’Huillier, Océanopolis, France.

This Fact Sheet was jointly composed by scientists at Institut de Recherche pour le Développement in Sète, France and Instituto del Mar del Peru, Peru. For further information please contact, Pierre Fréon ([email protected]), Christian Mullon ([email protected]), Marilu Bouchon ([email protected]), Miguel Ñiquen (mniquen@imarpe. gob.pe) and Dimitri Gutierrez ([email protected]).

FactSheet Sheetby: by:EUR-OCEANS EUR-OCEANSKnowledge KnowledgeTransfer TransferUnit, Unit,hosted hostedbybythe theGLOBEC GLOBECIPO IPOatatPlymouth PlymouthMarine MarineLaboratory. Laboratory. Fact www.eur-oceans.org/KTU For further information contact, Jessica Heard: [email protected] or visit the Website: For further information contact, Jessica Heard: [email protected] or visit the Website: www.eur-oceans.org/KTU